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North Korea nuclear crisis: Putin warns of planetary catastrophe

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The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has warned that the escalating North Korean crisis could cause a “planetary catastrophe” and huge loss of life.

“Ramping up military hysteria in such conditions is senseless; it’s a dead end,” he told reporters in China. “It could lead to a global, planetary catastrophe and a huge loss of human life. There is no other way to solve the North Korean nuclear issue, save that of peaceful dialogue.”

On Sunday North Korea carried out its sixth and by far its most powerful nuclear test to date. The underground blast triggered a magnitude-6.3 earthquake and was more powerful than the bombs dropped by the US on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during the second world war.

Putin was attending the Brics summit, bringing together the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Speaking on the final day of the summit in Xiamen, China, he said Russia condemned North Korea’s provocations but said further sanctions would be useless and ineffective.

Foreign interventions in Iraq and Libya had convinced the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, that he needed nuclear weapons to survive, Putin said.

“We all remember what happened with Iraq and Saddam Hussein. His children were killed, I think his grandson was shot, the whole country was destroyed and Saddam Hussein was hanged … We all know how this happened and people in North Korea remember well what happened in Iraq.

“They will eat grass but will not stop their [nuclear] programme as long as they do not feel safe.”

Putin’s warning came as South Korea refused to rule out redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons on its territory – a move that could seriously harm efforts to ease tensions as signs emerged that Pyongyang was preparing to launch another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

Seoul has routinely dismissed the option of basing US nuclear weapons on South Korean soil for the first time since the 1990s, but the country’s defence minister, Song Young-moo, said “all available military options” were being considered to address the growing threat from North Korean missiles.

On Tuesday, South Korean warships conducted live-fire drills, with more exercises planned this week. “If the enemy launches a provocation above water or under water, we will immediately hit back to bury them at sea,” said Capt Choi Young-chan, commander of the 13th Maritime Battle Group.

The drills came hours after Donald Trump and his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in, agreed to remove restrictions on the size of Seoul’s missile warheads and approved a deal to sell it “many billions of dollars’” worth of US military weapons and equipment.

Song raised the possibility of redeploying US nuclear weapons after the North’s nuclear test in remarks to the South’s national assembly, according to the Yonhap news agency.

But his remarks were later clarified, with spokesman Moon Sang-gyun saying there was “no change” in Seoul’s principle of working towards the complete denuclearisation of the peninsula.

Moon said Song had simply been stressing the need to “review all available options from the military perspective, and find a realistic way forwards”.

Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul, said: “No one in South Korea is seriously proposing that the US reintroduce strategic assets [such as nuclear weapons]. That’s something they might discuss further down the line, but there are no plans for that to happen right now.”

Calls have also been growing in South Korea for the country to develop a nuclear deterrent independent of the US.

Song’s comments came amid reports that North Korea may be preparing to launch another ICBM from a site on its west coast.

North Korea has been observed moving what appeared to be a long-range missile towards its west coast, according to South Korea’s Asia Business Daily. The newspaper claimed the missile had been transported towards the launch site overnight on Monday to avoid surveillance.

South Korea’s defence ministry said it was unable to confirm the report, although ministry officials told parliament on Monday the Pyongyang regime was preparing to launch more missiles.

In the past, North Korea has displayed its military capability to coincide with significant national anniversaries. That is fuelling speculation that an ICBM launch could come as early as this Saturday, when the country marks the 69th anniversary of its founding. The regime’s fifth nuclear test came on the same date, 9 September, last year.

Washington appears to have moved to ease South Korean doubts about US commitment to its security after Trump openly accused its east Asian ally of “appeasing” Pyongyang by holding out for a negotiated solution to its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

The agreement from the US to remove warhead restrictions on South Korean missiles will allow Seoul to develop more powerful weapons that would increase its pre-emptive strike capabilities against the North.

Trump’s appeasement comment, together with his reported threat to take the US out of a free trade agreement with South Korea, have triggered calls for Seoul to win stronger security assurances from Washington.

In an editorial published on Tuesday, the Korea Herald said: “The Seoul government’s most urgent job is to secure – based on a tight alliance with the US – defence and deterrence capability against possible nuclear and missile attacks from the North.”

The newspaper called for the quick deployment of the last four of six terminal high altitude area defence (Thaad) systems, but said that was only a first step.

The diplomatic focus is expected to shift to the UN security council later on Tuesday, with a vote expected on a resolution condemning the North’s latest nuclear test.

One drastic measure reportedly under consideration by US officials – a ban oil exports to North Korea – is likely to be opposed by Russia and China.

Beijing supplies roughly 500,000 tonnes of crude oil to North Korea every year as well as 200,000 tonnes of oil products, according to South Korean and UN data.

China opposes any measure that could cause instability and topple the regime of Kim Jong-un, sparking a refugee crisis and potentially allowing tens of thousands of South Korean and US troops to move north as far as the Chinese border.

On Monday, the US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, accused North Korea of “begging for war”, adding that the time had come for the security council to impose “the strongest possible” sanctions after Sunday’s test of what Pyongyang claimed was a hydrogen bomb that could be loaded on to an ICBM.

North Korea News LIVE: Vladimir Putin terms new sanctions on N Korea “useless”

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South Korean Defense Ministry handout: South Korean Vessels taking part in a naval drill off the east coast on September 4, 2017.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) has said that North Korea is believed to be moving an ICBM. It said that the missile’s projectile and how it was being transported was unclear.

British Conservative politician William Hague said that Kim Jong-un is probably a prisoner of his own dictatorship. “Born the third son of Kim Jong-il, he has always faced a choice of getting absolute power for himself or facing the dire consequences of not doing so,” Hague wrote in the Telegraph, adding that were Kim to dismantle the brutal North Korean regime, or even relax his grip on power, he could easily be assassinated.

Russian President Putin also warned that the escalating North Korean crisis could cause a “planetary catastrophe” and huge loss of life.

“The world is stunned by news that the DPRK’s intermediate-and-long range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 crossed the sky over islands of Japan along the preset flight track and accurately hit the preset target waters in northern Pacific.
The U.S. and Japan, the sworn enemies of the Korean nation, are struck with horror in face of the mettle of the DPRK which took the toughest counteraction against the U.S. insensible war drills. In the meantime, the Korean people feel relieved, their towering grudge settled,” KCNA had reported on Monday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that new sanctions imposed on North Korea would be “useless” and “ineffective”, adding that imposing tougher sanctions on the regime of Kim Jong Un over its nuclear missile programme would not change the leadership in Pyongyang, but could lead to large-scale human suffering.

In an article published in KCNA, the state-owned news agency in North Korea, Kim Myong Gil, an officer of the Korean People’s Army, said:

“Another thrilling nuclear thunder of Songun Korea is heavy punishment and sledgehammer blows to the US imperialists who are bringing the worst touch-and-go situation on the Korean peninsula while being carried away by ill-advised bravery.

Neglecting the strategic position of our country as a Juche-oriented nuclear power and a military power, they are bent on brigandish sanctions and stifling manoeuvres and hysteric war exercises. Today’s triumph deals another heavy blow to them, but fills us service personnel with the inexhaustible might and courage.”

Fires rage through West; California governor declares state of emergency

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Hundreds of people in California evacuated from their homes this weekend to escape a monster inferno being described as the largest in Los Angeles’ history.

California Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency Sunday, the Los Angeles Times reported. Brown’s declaration, which allows for state and federal assistance to be provided to Los Angeles County quickly, came after Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti issued a similar declaration.

Firefighters battled flames that chewed through nearly 8 square miles of brush-covered mountains as authorities issued mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders for more than 700 homes in Los Angeles, Burbank and Glendale.

The wildfires, just north of downtown L.A., had grown Saturday to the largest in city history, Garcetti said. Three structures had burned, at least two of them homes, but fire officials were confident they could extinguish the fire unless winds picked up.

Wildfires also entered a 2,700-year-old grove of giant sequoia trees near Yosemite National Park and have driven people from their homes in Washington State, Oregon, Montana and other areas struggling with a weeklong heat wave that’s gripped Western states.

San Francisco, meanwhile, set a heat record for the day, hitting 94 degrees before noon. By mid-afternoon, it was 101 in the coastal city — hotter than Phoenix. With an all-time high of 106 on Friday, it became just the third time since the 1870s that San Francisco had back-to-back triple-digit days.

Temperatures reached 115 south of the city. It was a rare heat wave at a time of year that San Francisco residents usually call “Fogust” for its cloudy chill.

The region was so hot that officials with the Bay Area Rapid Transit system ordered trains to slow down on rails that were exposed to sun, expecting the heat would expand and possibly shift the metal track slightly, spokeswoman Alicia Trost said.

In Montana, a fire sweeping the Lolo Peak and Florence areas of the state grew to more than 41,300 acres as it continues to burn, KPAX reported.

The fire, sparked by a lightning strike in mid-July, is being handled by 575 people assigned to the blaze.

“So yesterday the fire got established in the bottom of One Horse Creek and then started moving up the mountain and got up toward the top of the ridge. And then last night weather conditions became more favorable for burnout operations,” said Lolo Peak Fire Information Officer Derek Ibarguen. “And we conducted a burnout operation of about 50 to 60 acres that connected with the other burn blocks that have been in the past, to help shore up that eastern side of the fire.”

In Oregon, dozens of wildfires were sending up large plumes of smoke, causing disruptions in holiday travel as roads close and shutting down camping areas.

The wildfires forced about 140 hikers to shelter in place overnight Saturday on a popular trail about 90 miles east of Portland after they got stuck between two blazes.

The hikers were led 14 miles by search-and-rescue teams toward Wahtum Lake, and made it out by Sunday morning.

Many of the hikers were traveling along the Eagle Creek Trail Saturday, but a blaze on the trail made it difficult for the hikers to leave, so officials had them shelter overnight near Tunnel Falls.

Fire spokeswoman Mary Huels said a crew of about 18 firefighters who had been assigned to the south end of the older fire as lookouts were keeping track of the people in the area and getting them to safe areas.

Three other hikers in a different areas nearby were rescued by helicopter Saturday evening.

In the Pacific Northwest, high temperatures and a lack of rain this summer have dried out vegetation that fed on winter snow and springtime rain. Officials warned of wildfire danger as hot, dry, smoky days were forecast across Oregon and Washington over the holiday weekend.

A fire about 80 miles southeast of Seattle has burned more than 23 square miles and led to new evacuation notices Saturday. About 3,800 homes were threatened, authorities said.

The weeklong heat wave was generated by high pressure over the West, the National Weather Service said.

Myanmar conflict: Aung San Suu Kyi ‘must step in’

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The UN’s special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar has criticised the country’s de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, for failing to protect the Rohingya Muslim minority.

Yanghee Lee said the situation in Rakhine was “really grave” and it was time for Ms Suu Kyi to “step in”.

Her comments came as the number of Rohingya fleeing to Bangladesh reached 87,000, according to UN estimates.

That is more than the exodus after the October 2016 violence in Rakhine.

Both outpourings were sparked by attacks by Rohingya militants on police posts which triggered a crackdown by the Burmese military.

The Rohingya are a stateless Muslim ethnic minority who have faced persecution in Myanmar. Many of those who have fled describe troops and Rakhine Buddhist mobs burning their villages and attacking civilians.

Satellite images show many fires across northern parts of the state, and Human Rights Watch has released an image which it says shows that more than 700 homes were razed in one Rohingya village.

The military says it is fighting a campaign against Rohingya militants who are attacking civilians. Independently verifying the situation on the ground is very difficult because access is restricted.

What did Yanghee Lee say?

The UN special rapporteur said the scale of the destruction this time, compared to October, was “far greater”.

“The de facto leader needs to step in – that is what we would expect from any government, to protect everybody within their own jurisdiction,” she said.

Her sentiments were echoed by Nobel Peace laureate Malala Yousafzai, who said she was waiting to hear from Ms Suu Kyi – who has not commented on the crisis since it erupted.

“The world is waiting and Rohingya Muslims are waiting,” Ms Yousafzai said.

Ms Su Kyi, who lived under house arrest for years for her pro-democracy activism, is not the president but is widely seen as Myanmar’s head of government.

She has been criticised in the past for failing to admonish the powerful military, which ruled Myanmar for decades and retains 25% of parliamentary seats.

Ms Lee said that Ms Suu Kyi was “caught between a rock and a hard spot”, but added: “I think it is time for her to come out of that spot now.”

Is there a regional backlash?

Muslim nations in South East Asia and further afield are voicing concern over the plight of the Rohingya, and some small protests have been reported.

On Sunday a small petrol bomb was thrown at the Myanmar embassy in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta. Protests have also been held and on Monday Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi met Myanmar’s military chief to ask him to alleviate the crisis. Ms Retno is due to meet Ms Suu Kyi later in the day.

In Malaysia, which is home to tens of thousands of Rohingya refugees, Prime Minister Najib Razak hit out at the “dire situation” facing the Rohingya.

The Maldives says it is severing all economic ties with Myanmar until it stops violating the Rohingyas’ human rights, while Pakistan’s foreign ministry said it was “deeply concerned over reports of growing number of deaths and forced displacement of Rohingya Muslims”.

In Central Asia’s Kyrgyzstan, a football international with Myanmar has been cancelled, apparently because of a plan by some social media users to protest ahead of the Asian Cup qualifier.

What is the situation at the Bangladesh border?

Since the militant attacks on 25 August, Rohingya families have been streaming north to the border. Dozens are reported to have died trying to cross the Naf river which forms part of the border.

Bangladesh border police are allowing the refugees in, despite government orders to stop them, a BBC correspondent on the border says.

A border guard told AFP news agency that more people were arriving than last time. “If it continues then we will face serious problems. But it’s impossible to stop the flow, these people are everywhere,” he said.

Vivian Tan, a spokeswomen for UN refugee body UNHCR, who is on the Bangladesh border, said people arriving at refugee camps were “in very bad shape”.

“They say they have not eaten for days, not since they fled their homes. They’ve been surviving on either groundwater or rainwater. They’ve been walking for days, they’re physically exhausted, they’re probably traumatised.

“We’re seeing a lot of women and very young children, some newborn, and these babies have been exposed to the elements for days so they’re very very weak and they need medical attention.

“The numbers are really alarming and they are growing,” she said.

 

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Monday briefing: South Korea simulates missile attack on North

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Top story: James Mattis warns of ‘massive’ response

Good morning and welcome to the Guardian’s daily briefing. I’m Martin Farrer and these are the stories making waves this Monday morning.

South Korea has responded to Sunday’s nuclear test by North Korea with a huge show of military force as tensions in the region increased. The drills involved launching missiles in a simulated strike against its northern neighbour’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Joint drills with US forces are planned, military chiefs said. Seoul also appears poised to approve further deployments of a US missile defence system which will anger China and Russia, who think the Thaad system could be used by the Americans to spy on them.

US defence secretary James Mattis said Washington would respond to any attack on American soil with “massive” force while Donald Trump said Pyongyang’s actions were “very hostile”. The South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, held telephone talks with Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe after agreed greater pressure is needed on North Korea, including stronger United Nations resolutions.

In Beijing, Xi Jinping is facing a lack of options over how to deal with the North Koreans according to academics and China-watchers, one of whom says the Chinese are “pissed off” with their bind. Our correspondent Tom Phillips dissects what Xi might do.

Justice system shake-up – A report into deaths in police custody will find that families who have lost loved ones have been failed by the system in their battle for answers, the Guardian has learned. The report, which is yet to be published, recommends major reforms such as a ban on those detained under mental health powers being held in police cells and being transported in police vehicles, and free legal advice for families of those who have died in custody. The report by Dame Elish Angiolini QC, which is nearly 300 pages long, will be a landmark in police-community relations when it is published.

Brexit battle – Theresa May and David Davis will attempt to navigate a potentially stormy week by warning any Tory backbenchers thinking about rebelling over the Brexit bill should get into line or risk handing the keys of No 10 to Jeremy Corbyn. Critics of the European Union (withdrawal bill), which will be given a second reading on Thursday, say it does not allow for enough parliamentary scrutiny of new laws. But the Brexit secretary will use a Commons address on Tuesday to say that passing the bill is in the interests of MPs on all sides. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, upped the ante on Sunday by saying that the British people needed to be “educated” about the consequences of Brexit.

A poll by the thinktank British Future today shows that four out of five people who voted leave in the EU referendum would accept migration of high-skilled workers from the bloc to increase or stay the same. But remain and leave supporters back a reduction of low-skilled workers.

The big walkout – Staff at two branches of McDonald’s will go on strike today after a ballot in favour of action amid concerns over low wages and the use of zero-hours contracts. Around 40 staff in Cambridge and Crayford in south-east London are demanding a wage of at least £10 an hour, more secure hours and union recognition. Rail workers at Southern, Arriva and Merseyrail are also on strike today in disputes over the role of guards and driver-only services. The action on will disrupt travel as people return to work after the holidays and schools reopen.

UN aid blocked – The crisis engulfing Rohingya Muslims in north-west Myanmar appears set to deepen after it emerged that the UN has been prevented from delivering aid to the area amid a bloody army crackdown. The UN’s Myanmar office told the Guardian’s south-east correspondent, Oliver Holmes, that deliveries were suspended “because government field-visit restrictions rendered us unable to distribute assistance”. Pakistani rights activist Malala increased pressure on Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi by saying the “world is waiting” for her to stop the violence.

Retirement call – The TUC says the government should use productivity gains from the greater use of robots and artificial intelligence to reverse planned changes to the state pension age. Before its annual congress starting on Sunday in Brighton, the TUC said innovation ought to bring greater benefits for working people instead of benefiting only the owners of businesses.

Lunchtime read: A Portrait of Britain

What does Britain look like in the late summer of 2017? One answer is suggested by a collection of 100 photographs that will go on display at railway stations and shopping centres across the country until the end of the month. They include Grenfell Tower survivor Corinne Jones, septugenarian Cornish surfer Gwyn Haslock and actor Warwick Davis. They also include a portrait by Sian Davey of her daughter Alice, who has Down’s syndrome, aimed at charting “fear and uncertainty” on the path to unconditional love.

Sport

Lewis Hamilton is in pole position in the F1 world championship after winning the Italian grand prix on Sunday, and says he enjoys being the “villain” in the title race. Gareth Southgate is beginning to get the feeling of what it’s like to be the villain of English football as he rejected suggestions that his team lack pride in playing for their country after his team’s lacklusre win over Malta on Friday. They play Slovakia at Wembley tonight.

In the US Open tennis, there’ll be no fairytale return from her drug ban for Maria Sharapova who was beaten by Anastasija Sevastova overnight, while Venus Williams might just get a glorious swansong after she reached the quarter finals.

Business

Investors turned to safe havens such as the yen and gold this morning when the financial markets opened for the first time since news of North Korea’s nuclear test. It was bad news for Japanese stocks, however, and the Nikkei dropped almost 1% because exporters are likely to suffer from the higher currency. Gold hit a 10-month high to stand at $1,335.90.

The pound is up slightly at $1.295 and €1.089.

The papers

The Sun splashes with the troubles of Wayne Rooney after he was arested for drink driving. The headline is “Wayne thinks it’s all over”. The Mirror also features Wayne’s worldy worries, but the main story is that 460 people are dying every year while waiting for a transplant organ.

The FT has a startling headline: “Trump opens door to attack on North Korea after “H-bomb” test. The Telegraph also goes on that story with “US warns it is ready to annihilate North Korea”, while the Times reports Boris Johnson’s response to Kim Jong-un’s tests saying he does not “see an easy military solution” to the problem.

The Mail believes the most important story of the day is news that you could get fined heavily for putting your bins out too early, or filling them too full. To be fair it also mentions North Korea on the front. As does the Guardian, although it splashes on an as yet unpublished report into deaths in police custody which is recommending far reaching reforms.

For more news: www.theguardian.com

North Korea nuclear test: Kim Jong-un ‘preparing to launch missile’ – latest news

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  • South claims to have seen indications North is to launch missiles
  • Warning as it holds live-fire drills after Kim Jong-Un nuclear test
  • North says its enemies are ‘hell-bent on escalating confrontation’
  • United Nations Security Council to hold emergency meeting
  • US has warned threat would trigger ‘massive military response’
  • Boris Johnson urges against strike as North could ‘vaporise’ Seoul
  • What is North Korea’s missile range? Everything you need to know

North Korea is readying the launch of a ballistic missile, military leaders in South Korea believe after launching rockets in live-fire drills in response to the test of a nuclear bomb at the weekend.

Sunday’s nuclear test by Kim Jong-Un’s regime had an estimated strength of 50 kilotons, defence ministry officials told a parliamentary briefing on Monday as Seoul agreed “it is time to strengthen” a military response against the North.

That would make it five times the size of the North’s previous test in September last year – and more than three times bigger than the US device that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945.

South Korea responded to the nuclear test, which the North claimed was of a hydrogen bomb, with live-fire drills off its eastern coast on Monday that were meant to simulate an attack on the North’s main nuclear test site.

Military leaders in the South claim to have seen indications that the North is preparing more missile launches, possibly of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and announced they would deploy more anti-missile defences.

North Korea responded on Monday that its enemies are “hell-bent on escalating confrontation”, as it launched a scathing attack on the “warmongers” in Seoul.

China warned North Korea against proceeding with plans to launch another ballistic missile, saying it should not worsen tensions, but said Donald Trump’s trade threat was “unacceptable”.

America has warned that any threat to itself or its allies would be met with a “massive military response”, but British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson cautioned against a military strike.

Mr Johnson said that North Korea already has the ability to “vaporise” large parts of the population of South Korea even without nuclear weapons.

Stay with us for the latest updates throughout the day amid the ongoing tensions.

Motives of North Korea’s Leader Baffle Americans and Allies

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TOKYO — What does Kim Jong-un want?

That remains far harder to answer than the technical questions about Mr. Kim’s bombs and the reach of his missiles that have preoccupied American, Japanese and South Korean intelligence officials for years.

After North Korea’s underground test on Sunday, more is now known about the power of his nuclear arsenal, even if mystery remains about the veracity of the North’s claim that it detonated a hydrogen bomb.

Yet six years after Mr. Kim took power and began executing those who challenged his rule — sometimes with an antiaircraft gun — there is no issue that confounds analysts more than the motives of a 33-year-old dictator whose every move seems one part canny strategy, one part self-preservation, and one part nuclear narcissism.

The conventional wisdom has always been that Mr. Kim, like his father and grandfather before him, is mostly motivated by a deep desire to preserve the family business — a small country that is an improbable, walled-off survivor of Cold War.

But inside the Trump administration, many have begun to question the long-held assumption that his nuclear buildup is essentially defensive, an effort to keep the United States and its allies from finding the right moment to try to overthrow him.

Mr. Kim’s real goal may be blackmail, they argue — the sort that would be possible as soon as North Korea can put Los Angeles or Chicago or New York at risk.

It may be splitting the United States away from two allies — Japan and South Korea — who wonder whether the United States would really protect them, and half-expect Mr. Trump to make good on his campaign threat that he might pull American troops from the Pacific.

Or it may be about making Mr. Kim a power broker, a man Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping — leaders of the two superpowers Mr. Kim is fixated on — must treat as an equal.

Maybe it is about all three.

Very few people outside of North Korea have met Mr. Kim, including his supposed protectors, the Chinese.

Defectors periodically appear in London or Seoul, and offer insights, but few are true insiders. Documents revealed by Edward J. Snowden show that American intelligence agencies broke into the computer systems of the Reconnaissance General Bureau — the North Korean C.I.A. — but they learned more about operations than intentions.

“Anybody who tells you what North Korea wants is lying, or they’re guessing,” said Jon Wolfsthal, a scholar in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former senior director for arms control and nonproliferation in the National Security Council under President Barack Obama. “We don’t know what Kim Jong-un has for breakfast, so how can we know what his real end game is? We just don’t have great intelligence into his personal thinking.”

In public statements, the country has made clear that it wants to be accepted as a full member of the international community and that it wants to develop its economy alongside its nuclear program. It has also maintained as a longtime goal the desire to reunify with South Korea — on the North’s terms. Although Mr. Kim makes repeated bellicose threats against the United States and South Korea, such statements are always conditioned on the Americans or South Koreans continuing their “hostile policy’’ against the North.

But none of that explains the pace at which Mr. Kim — more technically savvy and more brutal than his father — has raced in the past year to develop an arsenal of nuclear weapons that can hit multiple targets in the continental United States.

“He wants to demonstrate his ability to put a U.S. city at risk of nuclear attack,’’ Michael Morell, the former deputy director of the C.I.A., said on “Face the Nation” on CBS on Sunday. “That is where he is driving.’’

He has nearly achieved that goal.

The most commonly heard explanation is that Mr. Kim believes that once he can hit Los Angeles, or maybe New York and Washington, the United States would never risk doing to him what it helped do to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, the now-deceased Libyan leader.

Mr. Qaddafi gave up all the elements of his nascent nuclear weapons program in 2003, in return for promises of economic integration with the West. That never fully materialized. And as soon as there was an uprising against him, the United States, European allies and some Arab states bombed him. He was found by rebel forces and executed.

But perhaps more than a self-preservation strategy is at work here. Mr. Kim, some of Mr. Trump’s advisers and outside experts believe, thinks he may be able to force the United States to withdraw sanctions and pull back its troops from South Korea, where they are a perennial irritant to Pyongyang.

Where analysts diverge is what he might do if the United States really did withdraw some or all of its forces, as Mr. Trump’s former chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, suggested that Washington consider doing. One fear is that it could use its nuclear arsenal as a shield for a military invasion of South Korea in an attempt to reunify the peninsula by force.

The worry, say those who fear the North is considering that option, is that its ability to strike the United States with nuclear missiles could undermine Americans’ ability to guarantee that it would protect South Korea, as well as Japan, from attack.

“If the Americans face a choice between San Francisco and Seoul, they will choose San Francisco,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul.

Based on that calculation, Mr. Lankov said, North Korea “can provoke a conflict in South Korea and then they can just basically put an ultimatum to the United States telling the Americans that if they get involved, they are going to basically get a North Korean retaliation strike.”

Such a conflict would be catastrophic for Asia, and could lead to the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. But it would also undercut every assurance the United States has made to other allies, from NATO to New Zealand, about coming to their defense.

The probability that the North intends to use force to reunify the peninsula, Mr. Lankov said, is “low, but real.”

It is also one of the regime’s stated goals, though one that — in the absence of nuclear weapons — it has never had a realistic hope of achieving. Many believe it is a fantasy, with or without a nuclear arsenal.

“North Korea does not have the power to carry out an all-out war that could last a long time for unification by force,” said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a South Korean government-funded think tank. “There is no way North Korea, while suffering from food shortages, can liberate South Koreans by force.”

Mr. Kim, Mr. Cho said, “has no intention of putting his words into action.”

He may well be right, but given the miserable track record of anticipating Mr. Kim’s intentions, neither American nor South Korean leaders seem eager to make that assumption. (One senior Trump administration official noted that in 1950, everyone assumed the North was too weak to invade the South, and were wrong.)

“It is important to take Pyongyang’s threat seriously,” said Mo Jongryn, dean of the graduate school of international studies at Yonsei University in Seoul.

There is another, less dramatic interpretation of Mr. Kim’s intentions. The combination of his developing nuclear program and his increasingly impressive cyberprogram may allow the North to effectively get away with smaller provocations without fear of military retaliation.

Mr. Kim paid very little price for the cyberattack that took out 70 percent of Sony Pictures Entertainment’s computer systems three years ago. There was no retaliation for its attacks on South Korean banks and media companies; its suspected theft of money from the Bangladesh central bank; or its role in a recent attack that hit Britain’s hospitals with ransomware demands. It might try to expand its cyberattacks for profit, or blackmail countries for economic aid.

Another possibility is that the regime will use its nuclear weapons to gain the upper hand in any future negotiations with the United States and its allies.

In the past, negotiators assumed North Korea might be prepared to trade away its nuclear program in exchange for economic support or a peace treaty with the United States, which would mean a final settlement of the seven-decade old conflict on the peninsula. (Under the United Nations armistice that suspended the Korean War in 1953, North Korea is still technically at war with South Korea, and its allies.)

But now the hope that sanctions will lead North Korea to give up an arsenal in which it has invested so heavily seems almost a fantasy. Instead, there is talk of whether, as an interim step, Mr. Kim might consider a freeze of its programs at their current level.

If so, the huge buildup of the past few years may have an easy explanation: Before negotiating a freeze, Mr. Kim may want a nuclear capability too big to dismantle. In short, he wants to be treated like Pakistan, or India, which have made clear they will never trade away their nuclear arsenals. By and large, the world has stopped demanding that they do so.

Domestic politics are also at work. Keeping nuclear weapons is also how the Kim regime can best engender fear and loyalty in the country’s populace.

“In order to justify what they’ve been doing all these years, they need an enemy of the United States to continue to exist,” said Suzanne DiMaggio, a director and senior fellow at the New America research group who has been involved in unofficial talks with North Korea. “Once that enemy is gone, then they don’t have the rationale any longer to keep this society in complete isolation.”

That is not to say that the North Koreans don’t have a list of wants if and when they are offered a seat at the negotiating table.

The North has repeatedly called for the suspension of annual war games conducted by the United States and South Korea and an eventual withdrawal of American troops from the peninsula. It is likely to want a guarantee that the United States will never again station tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea. It will surely want sanctions lifted, and some economic aid, as well as diplomatic recognition.

Critics of past negotiations with North Korea say it will never be satisfied. “It’s just this endless slippery slope of demands,” said Bruce Klingner, a Korean and Japanese specialist at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

Some analysts say that what North Korea most wants is respect.

“There is a certain universality of wanting to be recognized and respected,” said Cameron Munter, former United States ambassador to Pakistan and now president of the EastWest Institute. “And because Americans take this for granted, they don’t see just how deeply motivating that search for respect can be.”

But granting that wish can be difficult for politicians who do not want to appear to be bowing to a dictator. The farthest President Trump went recently was to say at a rally in Phoenix last month that he respected the fact that Kim Jong-un “is starting to respect us.”

If that was ever true, it didn’t last long.

Correction: September 4, 2017
An earlier version of this article misspelled the given name of the Chinese president. He is Xi Jinping, not Jingping.

South Korea Simulates Attack on North Korea’s Nuclear Site After Test

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Following U.S. warnings to North Korea of a “massive military response,” South Korea on Monday fired missiles into the sea to simulate an attack on the North’s main nuclear test site.

A day after Pyongyang detonated its largest ever nuclear test explosion, South Korea’s Defense Ministry also said Monday that North Korea appeared to be planning a future missile launch, possibly of an ICBM, to show off its claimed ability to target the United States with nuclear weapons.

The Associated Press reported that Chang Kyung-soo, an official with South Korea’s Defense Ministry, told lawmakers that Seoul was seeing preparations in the North for an ICBM test but didn’t provide details about how officials had reached that assessment. Chang also said the yield from the latest nuclear detonation appeared to be about 50 kilotons, which would mark a “significant increase” from North Korea’s past nuclear tests.

However, a South Korean military official later told NBC News that Chang’s briefing “was pointing out that North Korea is always ready for the next ballistic missile launch and this does not mean that the South Korean military is expecting another ballistic missile launch at a given set time.”

China also warned North Korea against launching another ballistic missile, saying it should not worsen tensions.

South Korea’s military said its live-fire exercise was meant to “strongly warn” Pyongyang. The drill involved F-15 fighter jets and the country’s land-based “Hyunmoo” ballistic missiles firing into the Sea of Japan.

The target was set considering the distance to the North’s test site and the exercise was aimed at practicing precision strikes and cutting off reinforcements, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

North Korea is thought to have a growing arsenal of nuclear bombs and has spent decades trying to perfect a multistage, long-range missile to eventually carry smaller versions of those bombs.

Kim Jong Un has been very open about his regime’s ambitions. North Korea regularly issues apocalyptic warnings to the U.S. and its allies. Last month, the regime’s official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said the U.S. would be “catapulted into an unimaginable sea of fire” if it imposed more sanctions or threatened military action. In May, the paper said the North was “waiting for the moment it will reduce the whole of the U.S. mainland to ruins” after President Donald Trump dispatched a naval strike group to the region.

Such threats have been a staple of Kim’s regime since he took power after his father’s death in 2011.

In October, top North Korean official Lee Yong Pil told NBC News that “a preemptive nuclear strike is not something the U.S. has a monopoly on.” He added: “If we see that the U.S. would do it to us, we would do it first.”

Related: They Fled N. Korea but Are Paying a Heavy Price

Asked by a reporter on Sunday if he would attack the North, Trump said: “We’ll see.” No U.S. military action appeared imminent, and the immediate focus appeared to be on ratcheting up economic penalties, which have had little effect thus far.

In briefs remarks after a White House meeting with Trump and other national security officials, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters that America does not seek the “total annihilation” of the North, but then added somberly, “We have many options to do so.”

Some experts say the president now finds himself boxed in with only one real option: negotiate with a brutal dictatorship that’s one of the world’s most oppressive human-rights abusers.

“This looks like the only option here,” according to Professor Hazel Smith at the School of Oriental and African Studies, a university in London more commonly known as SOAS. “There needs to be some very brave diplomacy — diplomacy with a regime that for good reason is considered abhorrent.”

Whether the colorful characters leading Washington and Pyongyang have the appetite for this course of action remains to be seen.

Certain members of Trump’s administration have appeared more open to the idea of talks, with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson saying last month that “we’re trying to convey to the North Koreans, ‘We are not your enemy, we are not your threat.'”

But Trump and Kim have more often favored threats and demands over nuance and olive branches.

Trump’s tweet following Sunday’s test exemplified his approach, saying: “appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!”

John Nilsson-Wright, a senior research fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, said that “there’s no evidence that North Korea is ready to talk and not much from Donald Trump either.”

In fact, North Korea did actually appear to suggest last month that it was open to getting rid of its nukes and rockets “if the U.S. hostile policy and nuclear threat to [North Korea] are definitely terminated.”

But all the while, the threats and missile tests and fiery propaganda have kept coming.

So how did we get to a place where the world’s biggest economy and most powerful military has so few options in dealing with an impoverished pariah state with few allies?

Firstly, a military strike against North Korea would be chaotic and bloody. If the U.S. launched an offensive, the North would almost certainly provoke a devastating retaliation against America’s ally of South Korea.

Even with conventional, non-nuclear weapons, North Korea could launch a barrage of missiles against the South’s capital of Seoul, and the wider conflict could see “millions of casualties and probably millions of deaths,” according to Smith at SOAS, author of “North Korea: Markets and Military Rule.”

These dire consequences caused Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon, to conclude last month that “there’s no military solution [to North Korea], forget it.”

While Trump has certainly talked tough — threatening North Korea with “fire” and “fury” among other things — these ultimatums have rarely if ever been backed up with action.

And some analysts say these hollow warnings have only emboldened North Korea.

“The United States has not mounted a coherent and visible response to several thresholds that have been crossed,” Adam Mount, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, told MSNBC on Sunday.

When North Korea achieved several important milestones in its weapons program, such as test-firing two intercontinental ballistic missiles, this “did not provoke a specific response from the Trump administration,” Mount said. “That’s been a mistake and quite frankly it’s allowed these missile tests to continue.”

Nilsson-Wright, who is also a senior lecturer at Cambridge University, agreed.

“It seems that Donald Trump’s tactic of using rhetorical brinkmanship is not working and failing pretty dramatically,” he said.

The other option open to the international community is more sanctions.

But as Smith at SOAS pointed out, “sanctions are not a policy in and of themselves. The question is, what do you want them to actually achieve?”

Judging by North Korea’s increasing nuclear and missile capabilities, the measures imposed so far have been unsuccessful in halting the regime’s technological advance. In addition “any food sanctions would be directly affecting 25 million people who are living in one of the poorest countries in the world,” Smith said.

Military conflict and sanctions aside, that leaves the option of negotiation.

Despite North Korea’s appalling human-rights record, any talks would be “a good thing and an important thing to consider,” according to Nilsson-Wright.

North Korea is unlikely to launch a preemptive attack on the U.S. or its allies, but its weapons program worries analysts because of the scope for miscalculation and miscommunication from both sides.

Entering into diplomatic talks with historical enemies is nothing new. In 1997, British Prime Minister Tony Blair started negotiations with the Irish Republican Army, a banned terrorist group that committed waves of attacks against civilians and the U.K. government.

There’s also precedent between the U.S. and North Korea. In 1994, three years before Blair shook the hands of IRA leaders, former President Jimmy Carter flew to Pyongyang to persuade the regime to negotiate with Bill Clinton over its nuclear program.

“These gestures at the 11th hour can sometimes work, but I haven’t seen any sign that Donald Trump is willing to do something as bold as that,” Nilsson-Wright said.

Alexander Smith reported from London. Stella Kim reported from Seoul, South Korea. Daniella Silva reported from New York.

What the Latest North Korean Nuclear-Test News Looks Like from Seoul

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On Sunday morning, Americans woke to the news that North Korea had apparently tested a hydrogen bomb in the northeast of the country—just days after the country fired a ballistic missile across Japan. Donald Trump, as usual, responded to this development on Twitter. “North Korea has conducted a major Nuclear Test. Their words and actions continue to be very hostile and dangerous to the United States,” he wrote. Then, inexplicably, he directed some of the blame at South Korea’s President, Moon Jae-in, and threatened to pull out of the countries’ bilateral free-trade agreement: “South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!”

Later in the day, I called Dae-Han Song, a thirty-eight-year-old English teacher and community organizer who’s lived in Seoul for the past decade. Song grew up in Germany and the U.S., and is more left-wing than the typical South Korean—he participated in the mass protests that led to the impeachment of the conservative President Park Geun-hye and to Moon’s election, earlier this year—but he understands the country’s casual resignation toward the official state of war. (No peace treaty was ever signed after the Korean War, of 1950 to 1953.) Song’s neighborhood, called Yongsan, sits next to a U.S. military base.

He was preparing for a Monday class—his students are middle-aged businessmen—when reports of North Korea’s latest nuclear detonation popped up on his laptop. He talked to me about his reaction, and about the context in which this news is being received in South Korea. This interview has been edited and condensed.

“We’ve got to dispel the idea that North Korea is crazy. The leaders are very logical; they navigate diplomacy well—that’s how they’ve been able to survive this long. North Korea is not suicidal. Even if you look at it from a very cynical point of view, of regime survival, war with the U.S. is not an endgame.

“My connection with North Korea is the desire for Korean reunification. The division has stunted South Korean democracy: the National Security Law has been used to repress, torture, and kill students, workers, and farmers. All the red-baiting created a bloc in Korea’s population—something like thirty to forty per cent of the Korean War generation—that often votes against its class interests, like people in rural areas that would not benefit from a conservative coming into power. My mother, she comes from Pohang, a very conservative area of Korea. She can be liberal—she has compassion for poor people in the United States, because she was an immigrant—but, being from the equivalent of Mississippi in Korea, she thinks Korean liberals are all Commies.

“When I heard about the test, it wasn’t, like, ‘Oh, my god!’ For Koreans, if you haven’t become desensitized to this by now, you’re gonna die of a heart attack.

“The new President is not a progressive. He’s a liberal. He’s supporting a missile-defense system that will actually cause more conflict. For Korea to have full democracy, you need at least a peace treaty with North Korea. There will be a generation—it may not be mine or my children’s—but there will be a generation born after a peace treaty, who’ll grow up not in war but in peace. Germany’s reunification was through collapse, but Korean reunification will be through peace.

“I think people limit their imagination as to what reunification can look like. Nobody’s paying attention. People just go about their lives. There have been more tense moments than this. People are concerned about jobs, about having full-time work, not contract work. Things have been improving under President Moon. Despite his limitations, he’s a good person, and he has to do right: he’s the President who came after the Candlelight Revolution, where millions of people came into the streets and deposed a President. Unless you want to get deposed, you have to live up to the dream.

“It would be good for people in the U.S. to stop being hysterical, and think a little bit logically. I wish people knew that North Korea was born out of U.S. action and division. The U.S. military base near my apartment is prime real estate. Koreans are living in such highly concentrated apartments surrounding the base, and then you go in, and it’s the suburbs of Los Angeles. It’s spread out—there are lawns and two-story homes. There’s a complete wall. It’s a fortress, just like the U.S. Embassy is a fortress. People are so used to it that they don’t think about a foreign military occupying the country.”

  • E. Tammy Kim is a member of The New Yorker’s editorial staff and the co-editor of “Punk Ethnography: Artists & Scholars Listen to Sublime Frequencies.”

North Korea preparing more missile launches, says South

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BBC – South Korea says it has seen indications that the North is preparing more missile launches, possibly an intercontinental ballistic missile.

It said it was strengthening its controversial US-made Thaad missile defence system after the North’s test of a nuclear bomb at the weekend.

The South has carried out live-fire exercises in response to the test.

The US has warned that any threat to itself or its allies will be met with a “massive military response”.

The North says it tested a hydrogen bomb that can fit on to a long-range missile.

Pyongyang has repeatedly defied UN sanctions and international pressure by developing nuclear weapons and testing missiles, and the provocations have only intensified.

In the past two months it has conducted intercontinental ballistic missile tests, sending one over mainland Japan into the Pacific Ocean. It has also threatened to fire missiles towards the US Pacific territory of Guam.

The United Nations Security Council is to hold an emergency meeting later on Monday to discuss its response.

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Ahead of that meeting, South Korea and Japan’s leaders had agreed to push for a stronger UN resolution on North Korea, said a South Korean presidential palace spokesman.

The Security Council last imposed sanctions in August, targeting North Korean exports.

What has the South said?

Chang Kyung-soo, a defence ministry official, told parliament: “We have continued to see signs of possibly more ballistic missile launches. We also forecast North Korea could fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).”

The ICBM could be fired into the North Pacific, officials said.

No timeframe was given for any launches but this Saturday, the anniversary of the foundation of the North’s regime, or 10 October, the establishment of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, were possible dates.

The ministry also told parliament the US would seek to deploy a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to seas off the peninsula.

It said it would temporarily deploy four more launchers of the US Thaad (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence) missile defence system to join the two already at the site in Seongju, south of Seoul.

Both China and Russia are strongly opposed to the Thaad deployment.

The South’s Defence Minister Song Young-moo said it was now presumed the North had reduced its nuclear warhead in size to below 500kg (1,100lbs), and would be able to fit one on an ICBM.

However, analysts have said the North’s claims about miniaturisation should be treated with considerable caution.

The ministry said there would be more live-fire drills in the South this month, involving Taurus air-to-surface missiles mounted on F-15 jets.

Monday’s drills simulated the targeting of the Punggye-ri nuclear site in Kilju County, where North Korea carried out its bomb test.

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South Korea and the US had also agreed “in principle” to revise current guidelines so that the South could double the maximum payload of its ballistic missiles, the Yonhap news agency also reported.

How did the nuclear test unfold?

On Sunday, seismologists started picking up readings of an earth tremor in the area where North Korea had conducted nuclear tests before.

The US Geological Survey put the tremor at 6.3 magnitude. North Korea later confirmed its sixth and most powerful nuclear test.

  • Stages of an underground nuclear test

Pyongyang then released pictures of leader Kim Jong-un with what state media said was a new type of hydrogen bomb.

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Officials in China said they were carrying out emergency radiation testing along the border with North Korea.

What has the reaction been?

The nuclear test prompted an angry response from US President Donald Trump who denounced it as “hostile” and “dangerous”, and called the North a “rogue nation”.

He added that the US was considering stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea, which relies on China for about 90% of its foreign trade.

  • Is Trump’s trade threat for real?

US Defence Secretary James Mattis later told reporters that while the US would respond to any threat “with a massive military response, a response both effective and overwhelming”, it was “not looking to the total annihilation of a country, namely North Korea”.

A White House statement also said that Washington would defend itself and its allies “using the full range of diplomatic, conventional, and nuclear capabilities at our disposal”.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in called the test an “absurd strategic mistake” and urged for the “strongest possible” response, including new UN Security Council sanctions to “completely isolate” the country.

China said on Monday that it had lodged a diplomatic protest with North Korea over the test.

Both China and Russia said any solution to the crisis could only come through talks.

What does the test tell us?

Estimations of the power of the tested device have varied widely, from 50 kilotons to 120 kilotons. A 50kt device would be about three times the size of the bomb that struck Hiroshima in 1945.

Hydrogen bombs are many times more powerful than an atomic bomb.

They use fusion – the merging of atoms – to unleash huge amounts of energy, whereas atomic bombs use nuclear fission, or the splitting of atoms.

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